Out of Iraq

On Christmas Eve I met Max Angst at Bernie’s Bar. Once again Bernie’s wife, Ellen, had done a great job of decorating for the season. There was an eight foot tall Christmas tree decorated in deep blue, the lights the balls and the various decorations were all the same deep blue color. There was dioramas created by Ellen’s class at the YWCA-- she was a successful artist who shared her gift by teaching-- Santa and his sled. Ebeneezer Scrooge redeemed passing presents out to the Cratchets, Carolers, Christmas shoppers in a mall. There were no religious ornaments, Bernie didn’t believe a Bar was the appropriate place for those.
"Doesn’t the place look nice," I said to Max as I sat down besides him.
"Yes. I love Christmas. There’s so much beauty and joy attached to it."
"Well let’s hope by next year the season will be complete. Let’s hope our troops will all be home from Iraq by then." I said.
"Are you sure that’s what you want?" Max asked.
"Absolutely. There’s been enough killing."
"Okay! Let suppose we pull out. What will happen."
"You obviously have something you want to say Max. So why don’t you go right ahead," I responded.
"I see a few troubling possibilities. If we leave Iraq, the Shiite majority will takeover the bottom two thirds of the country and continue their revenge against the Sunni’s. It could develop into a blood bath. If that occurs, Syria, Jordan Arabia and Egypt could get involved because they are dominantly Sunni countries and would seek to protect their co-religionists. Then Iran would back the Shiites. The whole Mid-east could go up in flames which could cause a planet wide disruption if countries come in to back either of the groups."
"The Shiites also will gain control of the Iraqi oil. They hate the United States as do their Iranian and Venezuelan allies. Suppose they seek revenge by drastically cutting back the supply of oil. The price of oil in the US could go up to six dollars a barrel and that could cause an economic collapse."
"So, there’s no way we can leave Iraq?"
"I believe a great deal of high level diplomatic maneuvering in which these problems could be resolved before our departure might be possible. But that would mean we would have to ask that level of diplomatic performance out of the Bush administration and they have demonstrated that they are no where near capable of it. The first thing that would have to be accomplished would be to stop Cheney from having any influence. If that’s done, perhaps Secretary Rice with a lot of help could get it done. The Democrats are going to have to put a lot of pressure on Bush. Even then, I doubt that it gets done before the end of Bush’s term in office."
"My God, Max, what a mess they put us in."
"I hope some day they’ll be made to pay for what they’ve done, Art."

The Last Christmas?

Blacky brought us each a single malt scotch. Bernie’s was decorated for Christmas; nothing lavish, just a great Christmas tree, some wreaths, a nice painting of nineteenth century merry gentlemen enjoying the season. Nothing religious, a bar is not the place for that. But it was nice.
"Enjoy it while you can, Art. This could well be the last year when our world will be holding together so that we can have a Merry Christmas," Max Angst said to me.
"C’mon Max; things aren’t that bad," I responded.
"I hope your right, Art, but there are things on the horizon that worry me."
"Fill me in."
"Just before the current Congress closed for elections they passed the Military Commissions Act and Bush signed it. That allows the imprisonment of anyone that the President declares to be an enemy alien combatant ; there is no Habeas Corpus right for such people and military commissions using courts martial proceedings will try them."
"So we have an effective method for dealing with foreign terrorists. How is that going to upset next year’s Christmas?" I asked.
"Lately, I have heard a number of senior military officers saying the reason that things are not going well in Iraq is that the American Public is not supporting the military effort there. And that is right. Polls are showing better than sixty percent of the American public wants the military to pull out of Iraq."
"I still don’t see how this will effect the American citizen."
"Try this, Art. The Bush administration is the Military Industrial Oligarchy in control of our country. The 2006 election seems to say the average American wants that to change. Suppose the oligarchy pulls off some stunt that seems to say our country is in terrible danger. From terrorists perhaps. They then declare anyone who calls for reduced military activity-- withdrawal from Iraq, a reduced military budget—is in effect and enemy alien combatant. The leaders of the peace movement could be arrested en masse. The country could be put under military control."
"That’s pretty far fetched, Max."
"So was the invasion of Iraq. No body saw it coming. And I’m convinced it is nothing more than the oligarchy trying to make money. If these guys see their game being squelched and the possibility of the next government taking action against them arises, they’re the kind of people who will do anything to retain power and protect themselves."
"What can we do, Max?"
"Start talking this possibility up. Organize to protect each other if these kind of threats appear likely."
"I’ll write a letter to the editor."
"Good, that’s a start."