Max on Iraq's Future

Max called and asked me to meet him at Burnie’s. He had something he wanted to bounce off me. I’m open to being Max’s sounding board; I learn so much that way. So, I made my way through the cold December afternoon to where my friend waited.
“The Iraqi election is over. Do you know who won?” Max asked.
“It looks like the religious Shiites have the largest block of votes in the Parliament, “ I replied.
“That’s right. And who are the religious Shiites closely tied to?”
“Iran?” I repeated.
“Correct! So, can we say Iran won the elections in Iraq.”
“That maybe pushing it some.”
“Did the United States win?”
“Just getting an election in that part of the world is some kind of a victory.”
“Listening to Bush and his gang, one would believe they wanted to set up an elective government on the European model and westernize Iraq considerably. Do you think the Shiites or the Iranians want that?”
“Probably not.”
“ So it boils down to if the elections are for real and the US lets the winners run Iraq, an Islamic republic will emerge that will not much resemble the European model ,but, rather the the Iranian model where the ultimate decisions are made by a group of clerics. Which is pretty much how the southern part of Iraq operates today. Ayatollah Shistani' calls a lot of the shots.
“So what does the US do?” I asked
“Just the other day I read that control of Iraqi oil has been divided up between a group of Multinational Corporations. Do you think the Shiites are going to lie down for that.?”
“No I don’t.”
“The US will have to stay to protect that set up. And that’s why they the built fourteen enduring bases the Chicago Tribune reported. They will hide in those bases coming out only to protect Multinational Operations,” Max said.
How about the rest of the country?” I asked.
“Let them fight it out amongst themselves..”
“But there are other countries involved. Iran with the Shia; Turkey’s threats about the Kurds are two example. If the region explodes in war this plan doesn’t seem very viable,” I said.
Yeah, another Bushism. Has the Bush gang ever planned anything that really worked?” Max asked.
“The Big problem is how to get US troops home soon.”
“It’s not going to happen,” Max said shaking his head in disgust.